The influence of hyperchaoticity, synchronization, and Shannon entropy on the performance of a physical reservoir computer.

In this paper, we analyze the dynamic effect of a reservoir computer (RC) on its performance. Modified Kuramoto's coupled oscillators are used to model the RC, and synchronization, Lyapunov spectrum (and dimension), Shannon entropy, and the upper bound of the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy are employed to characterize the dynamics of the RC. The performance of the RC is analyzed by reproducing the distribution of random, Gaussian, and quantum jumps series (shelved states) since a replica of the time evolution of a completely random series is not possible to generate. We demonstrate that hyperchaotic motion, moderate Shannon entropy, and a higher degree of synchronization of Kuramoto's oscillators lead to the best performance of the RC. Therefore, an appropriate balance of irregularity and order in the oscillator's dynamics leads to better performances.

Impact of periodic vaccination in SEIRS seasonal model.

We study three different strategies of vaccination in an SEIRS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) seasonal forced model, which are (i) continuous vaccination; (ii) periodic short-time localized vaccination, and (iii) periodic pulsed width campaign. Considering the first strategy, we obtain an expression for the basic reproduction number and infer a minimum vaccination rate necessary to ensure the stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) solution. In the second strategy, short duration pulses are added to a constant baseline vaccination rate. The pulse is applied according to the seasonal forcing phases. The best outcome is obtained by locating intensive immunization at inflection of the transmissivity curve. Therefore, a vaccination rate of 44.4% of susceptible individuals is enough to ensure DFE. For the third vaccination proposal, additionally to the amplitude, the pulses have a prolonged time width. We obtain a non-linear relationship between vaccination rates and the duration of the campaign. Our simulations show that the baseline rates, as well as the pulse duration, can substantially improve the vaccination campaign effectiveness. These findings are in agreement with our analytical expression. We show a relationship between the vaccination parameters and the accumulated number of infected individuals, over the years, and show the relevance of the immunization campaign annual reaching for controlling the infection spreading. Regarding the dynamical behavior of the model, our simulations show that chaotic and periodic solutions as well as bi-stable regions depend on the vaccination parameters range.

Multistability and chaos in SEIRS epidemic model with a periodic time-dependent transmission rate.

In this work, we study the dynamics of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible epidemic model with a periodic time-dependent transmission rate. Emphasizing the influence of the seasonality frequency on the system dynamics, we analyze the largest Lyapunov exponent along parameter planes finding large chaotic regions. Furthermore, in some ranges, there are shrimp-like periodic structures. We highlight the system multistability, identifying the coexistence of periodic orbits for the same parameter values, with the infections maximum distinguishing by up one order of magnitude, depending only on the initial conditions. In this case, the basins of attraction have self-similarity. Parametric configurations, for which both periodic and non-periodic orbits occur, cover 13.20% of the evaluated range. We also identified the coexistence of periodic and chaotic attractors with different maxima of infectious cases, where the periodic scenario peak reaches approximately 50% higher than the chaotic one.

Temporal relation between human mobility, climate, and COVID-19 disease.

Using the example of the city of São Paulo (Brazil), in this paper, we analyze the temporal relation between human mobility and meteorological variables with the number of infected individuals by the COVID-19 disease. For the temporal relation, we use the significant values of distance correlation t0(DC), which is a recently proposed quantity capable of detecting nonlinear correlations between time series. The analyzed period was from February 26, 2020 to June 28, 2020. Fewer movements in recreation and transit stations and the increase in the maximal temperature have strong correlations with the number of newly infected cases occurring 17 days after. Furthermore, more significant changes in grocery and pharmacy, parks, and recreation and sudden changes in the maximal pressure occurring 10 and 11 days before the disease begins are also correlated with it. Scanning the whole period of the data, not only the early stage of the disease, we observe that changes in human mobility also primarily affect the disease for 0-19 days after. In other words, our results demonstrate the crucial role of the municipal decree declaring an emergency in the city to influence the number of infected individuals.

Suppression of chaotic bursting synchronization in clustered scale-free networks by an external feedback signal.

Oscillatory activities in the brain, detected by electroencephalograms, have identified synchronization patterns. These synchronized activities in neurons are related to cognitive processes. Additionally, experimental research studies on neuronal rhythms have shown synchronous oscillations in brain disorders. Mathematical modeling of networks has been used to mimic these neuronal synchronizations. Actually, networks with scale-free properties were identified in some regions of the cortex. In this work, to investigate these brain synchronizations, we focus on neuronal synchronization in a network with coupled scale-free networks. The networks are connected according to a topological organization in the structural cortical regions of the human brain. The neuronal dynamic is given by the Rulkov model, which is a two-dimensional iterated map. The Rulkov neuron can generate quiescence, tonic spiking, and bursting. Depending on the parameters, we identify synchronous behavior among the neurons in the clustered networks. In this work, we aim to suppress the neuronal burst synchronization by the application of an external perturbation as a function of the mean-field of membrane potential. We found that the method we used to suppress synchronization presents better results when compared to the time-delayed feedback method when applied to the same model of the neuronal network.

Predicting regime changes and durations in Lorenz's atmospheric convection model.

We show that a characteristic alignment between Lyapunov vectors can be used to predict regime changes as well as regime duration in the classical Lorenz model of atmospheric convection. By combining Lyapunov vector alignment with maxima in the local expansion of bred vectors, we obtain an effective and competitive method to significantly decrease errors in the prediction of regime durations.

Machine learning, alignment of covariant Lyapunov vectors, and predictability in Rikitake's geomagnetic dynamo model.

In this paper, the alignment of covariant Lyapunov vectors is used to train multi-layer perceptron ensembles in order to predict the duration of regimes in chaotic time series of Rikitake's geomagnetic dynamo model. The machine learning procedure reveals the relevance of the alignment of distinct covariant Lyapunov vectors for the predictions. To train multi-layer perceptron, we use a classification procedure that associates the number of maxima (or minima) inside regimes of motion with the duration of the corresponding regime. Remarkably accurate predictions are obtained, even for the longest regimes whose duration times are around 17.5 Lyapunov times. We also found long duration regimes with a distinctive statistical behavior, namely, the longest regimes are more likely to occur, a quite unusual behavior. In fact, we observed a largest regime above which no regimes were observed.

How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?

The cumulative number of confirmed infected individuals by the new coronavirus outbreak until April 30th, 2020, is presented for the countries: Belgium, Brazil, United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA). After an initial period with a low incidence of newly infected people, a power-law growth of the number of confirmed cases is observed. For each country, a distinct growth exponent is obtained. For Belgium, UK, and USA, countries with a large number of infected people, after the power-law growth, a distinct behavior is obtained when approaching saturation. Brazil is still in the power-law regime. Such updates of the data and projections corroborate recent results regarding the power-law growth of the virus and their strong Distance Correlation between some countries around the world. Furthermore, we show that act in time is one of the most relevant non-pharmacological weapons that the health organizations have in the battle against the COVID-19, infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus. We study how changing the social distance and the number of daily tests to identify infected asymptomatic individuals can interfere in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 when applied in three distinct days, namely April 16th (early), April 30th (current), and May 14th (late). Results show that containment actions are necessary to flatten the curves and should be applied as soon as possible.

Classification strategies in machine learning techniques predicting regime changes and durations in the Lorenz system.

In this paper, we use machine learning strategies aiming to predict chaotic time series obtained from the Lorenz system. Such strategies prove to be successful in predicting the evolution of dynamical variables over a short period of time. Transitions between the regimes and their duration can be predicted with great accuracy by means of counting and classification strategies, for which we train multi-layer perceptron ensembles. Even for the longest regimes the occurrences and duration can be predicted. We also show the use of an echo state network to generate data of the time series with an accuracy of up to a few hundreds time steps. The ability of the classification technique to predict the regime duration of more than 11 oscillations corresponds to around 10 Lyapunov times.

Strong correlations between power-law growth of COVID-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies.

In this work, we analyze the growth of the cumulative number of confirmed infected cases by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) until March 27, 2020, from countries of Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. Our results show that (i) power-law growth is observed in all countries; (ii) by using the distance correlation, the power-law curves between countries are statistically highly correlated, suggesting the universality of such curves around the world; and (iii) soft quarantine strategies are inefficient to flatten the growth curves. Furthermore, we present a model and strategies that allow the government to reach the flattening of the power-law curves. We found that besides the social distancing of individuals, of well known relevance, the strategy of identifying and isolating infected individuals in a large daily rate can help to flatten the power-laws. These are the essential strategies followed in the Republic of Korea. The high correlation between the power-law curves of different countries strongly indicates that the government containment measures can be applied with success around the whole world. These measures are scathing and to be applied as soon as possible.